Nepal: Necessity theory!
N. P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: The proverbial “lull before the storm” prevails in the country.
The tornado that is in the making may hit this nation any time soon.
High placed analysts claim that a sort of Himalayan political calamity awaits this nation if the stipulated date for the draft of the new constitution gets expired on May 27, 2010, late evening.
In a way, terror thus prevails in each and every Nepali household considering “what if the Constitution is not drafted on time”?
The answer to this question is with the high-flying republican leaders who beamingly declared some two years ago that by May 28, 2010, the nation will get a new constitution that would take proper care of all the sickness which had not been incorporated for redresses in the previous constitutions and thus had neglected the voices of the silent majority since decades and decades.
The time is running out and the leaders appear to be on pins and the needles for fear of being manhandled if they fail in the draft of the new Nepal Charter on the predetermined date.
The new Nepal Charter will not be written on time at least this much has become pretty clear to the keen political observers of this country and more so to the leaders who had vowed to provide the one on time.
The reason?
Obviously, none of the major parties want the new Charter to be drafted for their own respective political reasons.
The Maoists want to capture the State taking the political advantage of the chaotic situation that will emerge instantly after the non-draft of the new Charter. The Maoists have not kept their inner design in a secret. This they have been telling during each and every speech that they have been making in the recent days and weeks.
Maoist Supremo, Prachanda, is on record to have said to his “boys” very freshly in Shaktikhor cantonment to remain in a state of “preparedness” to face the eventuality in the party’s advantage should there be a political vacuum created by the non-draft of the new constitution.
Thus the Maoists remain in a geared up state to Capture the State which is their ultimate goal and objective.
Unfortunately, the Maoists appear to be in a divided state at the moment.
The talk of elevating Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai to the post of new Nepal Prime Minister has jolted the party of the ex-rebels from within. The most hit by this rumor is definitely Prachanda himself as he is one of the most ambitious political personality and would want to bounce back to power under any circumstances even that demanded the split in the party.
Says Prachanda, “the rightists are conspiring to encircle our party…this we must understand….if we fail to understand these nefarious designs being hatched by the rightists then we may land in an unfortunate situation”.
Clearly, Prachanda hints at the Indian establishment-the rightists in his calculation-which has, as the rumors have it, secretly mooted the idea that if Dr. Bhattarai is made the new Nepal prime Minister then the Nepal Maoist’s damaged relations with India could be corrected to a greater extent.
Prachanda is not that fool not to understand these political maneuverings, both domestic and foreign, which is conspiring to elevate Dr. Bhattarai to the post of the Nepal Prime Minister albeit, if that happens at all, Bhattarai will be enjoying unconditional support from the Nepali Congress and the UML as well.
It is this Indian design, as understood by Prachanda, has made him to go mad. No wonder, if Prachanda sooner than later once again dubs Dr. Bhattarai as an “India man” as he used to dub Bhattarai in the past.
And if he does so and repeats the same blunder then the Maoists party will in all likelihood see a vertical split and that is what the entire Maoists haters want near and far.
“If we do not understand these designs…..” is what he wants to tell Dr. Bhattarai in an oblique manner not to get carried away by the lollypops that the latter may have been receiving both from within and without.
However, Dr. Bhattarai in all his modesty has made it abundantly clear that without jeopardizing the party and its prime interests, if approached for the post of the prime Minister in consensus then he will handle the affairs of the State.
Whether the Maoist party splits or not or even Dr. Bhattarai is elevated to the ranks of the New Nepal PM or not is not of our concern. However, what concerns the analysts here is the fresh Maoist declaration that they will go in for a fresh revolt immediately after the date of the constitution draft expires.
This is dangerous. After all a revolt is revolt which will definitely take its toll.
So the first M-the Maoists is sure to stage a fresh revolt and will try to cash in upon the political vacuum thus created by the non-draft of the new Charter. The Maoists are thus ready to exhibit their militancy.
Equally true is how a divided Maoists will wage a revolt then?
Now let’s take up the second M-that is the Military.
Nepal Army too has become restive these days which becomes abundantly clear from the near to political statements coming as it does from the Military quarters.
Whether Nepal Army Chief should have spoken in such a rough and tough manner, which he could have avoided, while meeting the visiting UN high official, Lynn Pascoe, that “Nepal Army will not accept the en masse integration of the Maoists militias into the mainstream Army”.
In a way, the NA Chief version caps the possibility of the Maoist militia’s entrance into the mainstream army. By extension, it does also mean that the Nepal Army possesses utmost hatred for the Maoists and its “indoctrinated” militias.
Aren’t the militias the sons of the same soil which gave birth to CoAS Gurung?
Such hatred, if true, bodes ill for the nation.
In the mean time, the top-hats of the Nepal Army Generals from five different development zones secretly met in Kathmandu-the meeting is in progress- and analyzed the country’s prevailing situation and also learnt to have “intensively” discussed on how to take steps should the country go berserk if the constitution not drafted on time.
This is very very dangerous. The chances of the imposition of the Military rule can’t be ruled out. Ignoring the President, it is very much likely that the Army will jump into the political scene. The Army is in a state of preparedness.
Nepal Army Chief, Mr. Gurung’s blunt statement made in front of the UN dignitary and the emergency meet of the Army Generals speaks so many things unspoken.
More so, the Nepal Army remains apparently disturbed by the declaration of the Maoists that they will wage a fresh revolt which may have encouraged the Army generals to come together and devise a common strategies on how to quell such a revolt in the larger interest of the country’s security system.
So this does mean that the second M-the Military is also in a state of attentiveness to take up the possible challenges that may arise after the constitution draft deadline, May 27, 2010, late evening expired.
Needleless to say, the security situation of the country should the two M’s come face to face will deteriorate to an extent neither desirable nor affordable.
Now let’s take up the third M-that is the now sidelined Monarchy.
The sidelined and defunct monarchy has suddenly become active. The activities have almost doubled after the ex-King made a fresh trip to India wherein he met practically all the “key” Indian leadership who tentatively “chart” the fate of this nation beginning early 1950s.
Former King Gyanendra’s sudden but calculated visit to Pasupatinath temple last week and the encouragement that he provided to the followers of Hinduism does tell that in a very subtle manner the sidelined King too wants to be a part of Nepali politics but under the cover of revival of Hindu state in Nepal.
Religion cover indeed.
Whether the ex-King should have openly voiced for the revival of the Hindu State or not may be a matter of intense debate, however, what is for sure is that “he must not have provided a political twist to the campaign for the revival of a Hindu State for Nepal”. His loyal stooges could have accomplished this task on “his behalf”.
But then yet, as a commoner and also being a Hindu, he perhaps deserved this right to openly champion the cause of the Hindu religion.
Ex-King’s motives are not yet clear though but what could be said safely that “he wants to play politics under the cover of the revival of Hindu State”. Whether his maneuverings will yield him positive results or not time will only tell. He is playing his cards well, whether one liked it or not.
Having said all these, the third M-that is the ex-monarchy too would prefer the chaos to grip this country after the expiry of the constitution draft date and “in the name of saving the nation from going to the dogs”, may find some slot to bounce back to power. This may be his secret game. The question thus is whether the population at large will accept him as the savior in case the security situation worsened and touched a new low?
Or will the “theory of necessity” prevail? Keep on guessing.
All in all, Nepal as a nation-state is soon to undergo through a tumultuous period wherein chaos, political instability associated with the likelihood of violent conflict or say revolt can’t be ruled out.
Tighten your belts please.
